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Euro & Swissie break with the pack

For most of the last couple of years, the non-dollar, non-yen currencies have moved with a remarkable degree of correlation. Priced in US dollars, over a multi-month time frame (and usually even...

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God save the Queen

The Aussie and Loonie lead on the way up, and they are now starting to wobble. This doesn’t mean their tops are in, but it means we should be on the lookout for a turn: . Prophet.net

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AUD turning lower?

Prophet.net The CAD and NZD look basically the same as the Aussie. Incredibly, the Euro may not bounce much more at all, but continue to slide, just like the dollar did for so long.

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Commodities crash underway: straight down or choppy?

Commodities did spectacularly well from winter 08-09 to winter 09-10. Many tripled in price, such as oil, copper and palladium. The world seemed convinced that another great phase of inflation was...

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Chart: Secular Bear Markets Since 1900

Secular Bear Markets (red) since 1900. Source: Crestmont Research I like this chart, but I would change one thing: the bear that started in 1929 could extend clear through to 1948 due to inflation and...

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Hedge funds: Just say no

Hedge funds are almost never a good investment. As a class, they underperform and overcharge. Only 20% of funds beat their benchmarks in a given year, and of those, fewer than half outperform in two of...

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Bristlecone Pine trading

Hedge funds, mutual funds and active mangers underperform and overcharge, while a simple buy-and-hold strategy regularly sustains sharp losses and lengthy secular bear markets. So what’s an investor...

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Barrons Big Money Poll shows complacency & love for equities

It amazes me that the most successful managers could be so bullish at a time like this (way overvalued, way overbought, rising Treasury yields, stalled earnings growth), but of course stocks are most...

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What goes up must come down (coffee futures boom-to-bust).

A 9-month mania has become a relentless 2-year bear market, and prices are back where they started: From Futures.Tradingcharts.com From Indexmundi.com, here’s a longer-term view. As is typical of...

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Top developing

An overbought market that has kept the vast majority of investors and traders in the bull camp for several weeks is to be viewed with suspicion. When prices also begin to lose their upward momentum,...

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RSI declining – final warning sign

This is a very expensive and overbought market which few participants believe can decline meaningfully. That alone is dangerous, but now we see signs of technical exhaustion, such as the downtrend in...

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Daylight saving is pointless

  Daylight Saving Time doesn’t save energy. It just messes up the seasonal progression of diurnal rhythms, effectively giving us jetlag. The sun was rising a few minutes earlier each week, and now...

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One more datapoint on the equity bubble

The latest Flow of Funds Report (link to pdf) shows that equities comprise a greater share of US household assets than at any point besides the height of the internet bubble. Of course, elevated prices...

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On Flash Boys, why HFT is parasitic, and why it’s over.

  It’s my baseline assumption when looking at markets, financial or otherwise, that when something involves no fraud or physical coercion it’s beneficial or innocuous. When you find something damaging...

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Euro & Swissie break with the pack

For most of the last couple of years, the non-dollar, non-yen currencies have moved with a remarkable degree of correlation. Priced in US dollars, over a multi-month time frame (and usually even...

View Article


Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

God save the Queen

The Aussie and Loonie lead on the way up, and they are now starting to wobble. This doesn’t mean their tops are in, but it means we should be on the lookout for a turn: . Prophet.net

View Article

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

AUD turning lower?

Prophet.net The CAD and NZD look basically the same as the Aussie. Incredibly, the Euro may not bounce much more at all, but continue to slide, just like the dollar did for so long.

View Article


Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Commodities crash underway: straight down or choppy?

Commodities did spectacularly well from winter 08-09 to winter 09-10. Many tripled in price, such as oil, copper and palladium. The world seemed convinced that another great phase of inflation was...

View Article

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Chart: Secular Bear Markets Since 1900

Secular Bear Markets (red) since 1900. Source: Crestmont Research I like this chart, but I would change one thing: the bear that started in 1929 could extend clear through to 1948 due to inflation and...

View Article

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Hedge funds: Just say no

Hedge funds are almost never a good investment. As a class, they underperform and overcharge. Only 20% of funds beat their benchmarks in a given year, and of those, fewer than half outperform in two of...

View Article
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